Sweden vs Tunisia

Scandinavian pragmatism meets North African ambition in a fixture that has only one competitive precedent: a 1978 friendly in Tunis that Tunisia won 1-0. Neither record tells you anything about what to expect in 2026. Sweden's path to this tournament was characteristically Swedish — they did not thrill anyone in qualifying, but Jon Dahl Tomasson has instilled a shape that concedes little and capitalises on set pieces with almost mechanical precision. Dejan Kulusevski remains the creative hub, his Tottenham-honed ability to drift infield from the right opening angles that Alexander Isak feasts upon.

Tunisia arrive with a different identity, one forged through consecutive World Cups where they showed flashes — drawing with Denmark in 2022 — without ever delivering a complete performance on this stage. Manager Montasser Louhichi has rebuilt around a younger core, with Hannibal Mejbri finally assuming the midfield reins and Elias Achouri providing width that previous Tunisia teams lacked. The tactical battle centres on Sweden's willingness to sit deep and invite Tunisia onto them, gambling that Isak's pace on the break trumps sustained Tunisian possession.

If Tunisia dominate the ball without creating clear chances, Sweden's patience will be rewarded. If Mejbri pulls the strings and Achouri gets behind Viktor Lindelöf, the Swedes may need a Plan B they have not shown under Tomasson. Tight, niggly, and likely decided by a single moment.