France vs Iraq

France's final group match pits them against an Iraq side appearing at just their second World Cup, and the asymmetry is almost disorienting. Les Bleus have played in four of the last six major tournament finals; Iraq's entire World Cup history consists of three group-stage defeats at Mexico 1986. But it is precisely this sort of mismatch that has produced the tournament's most enduring stories, and Deschamps will be acutely aware that French complacency has a pedigree of its own — the 2002 opener against Senegal, the 2010 catastrophe in South Africa.

Iraq arrive with nothing to lose and a tactical identity Casas has forged through two years of stubborn, systematic work. Their 4-2-3-1 sacrifices the ball but not the structure, and Amir Ammari's ability to carry from midfield gives them a release valve when the press becomes suffocating. France, assuming they have six points from the first two matches, may rotate heavily here, which opens the door for an Iraqi squad that would treat a draw against the French as a national milestone. Even a second-string France features players who start for Europe's elite clubs, and the physical mismatch across every position should theoretically make this straightforward. Yet the history of final group matches between qualified teams and desperate underdogs is littered with surprises.

Iraq's task is to stay in the game long enough for doubt to creep in. If they concede early, the gulf in class becomes insurmountable.