England vs Croatia

Seven years on from Moscow, the wound still smarts. England's extra-time defeat to Croatia in the 2018 World Cup semi-final remains one of the most agonising nights in the national team's modern history, and while subsequent Nations League encounters — a goalless draw in Rijeka and a 2-1 England win at Wembley — have slightly redressed the balance, the scar tissue is real. This is a fixture thick with narrative: Luka Modrić, now thirty-nine and in his final World Cup, against an England midfield that has been rebuilt around Jude Bellingham and Declan Rice; the tactical chess match between Gareth Southgate's controlled pragmatism and Dalajić's commitment to possession-based control.

Croatia qualified with characteristic stubbornness, grinding through a group where Turkey and Wales pushed them to the final matchday, and their tournament know-how — four major tournaments, four knockout rounds reached — should not be underestimated despite an ageing core. England's qualifying campaign was remorseless: eight wins from eight before a dead-rubber draw, with Harry Kane's movement and Bukayo Saka's dribbling causing sustained damage. The tactical battle hinges on midfield.

If Rice can suppress Modrić's passing lanes and Bellingham can drive forward from the areas Croatia's press leaves vacant, England have the weaponry to hurt a defence that looked vulnerable against quick transitions in recent matches. Croatia will target England's left side, where Luke Shaw's defensive positioning has been questioned. A draw suits nobody in a group this tight. Expect neither side to settle for one.