Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Qatar

When Bosnia and Herzegovina face Qatar in Houston, the simplest narrative is European physicality against Asian technical craft. The truth is more nuanced. Bosnia's direct style, built around Edin Džeko's hold-up play and crosses from the wide midfield, is exactly the kind of aerial bombardment that Qatar's relatively diminutive back four struggles to handle.

The Dragons scored nearly half their qualifying goals from set pieces or crosses into the box, and Barbarez will have studied the tape of Qatar's 2022 World Cup defeats — all three of which featured headed goals from opposition forwards who found space between the centre-backs. Qatar, now coached by Julen Lopetegui, have evolved beyond the rigid possession game that was exposed on home soil in 2022. Lopetegui has introduced a more aggressive 4-3-3, with Almoez Ali playing as a genuine striker and Akram Afif given licence to drift into central areas. These two have never met, and that unfamiliarity could favour Bosnia: Džeko's physicality is something Qatari defenders rarely face in AFC competition.

If Qatar cannot cope with the aerial threat, Lopetegui's tactical adjustments will be moot.