Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Qatar

Bosnia and Herzegovina face Qatar in Houston with a straightforward proposition: get the ball wide, swing it into the box, and let Edin Džeko do what he has done for two decades. The veteran striker, 40 years old and still captaining his country, remains the fulcrum of a Bosnia attack that scored nearly half their qualifying goals from set pieces or crosses. Against a Qatari back four that conceded headed goals in all three of their 2022 World Cup defeats, that supply line looks less like a tactic than a probability.

Barbarez will have studied those tapes closely. Qatar's centre-backs were pulled out of position by movement between the lines in Qatar, and forwards who found the space between them scored with headers that a better-organised defence would have prevented. Džeko's physicality is something Qatari defenders rarely face in AFC competition, and the Dragons' crossing positions — Barbarez likes his wide midfielders high and wide rather than cutting inside — maximise the angles for delivery.

Qatar, under Julen Lopetegui, have evolved beyond the rigid possession game that was exposed on home soil. The former Spain and Real Madrid coach has introduced a more aggressive 4-3-3, with Almoez Ali playing as a genuine striker and Akram Afif given licence to drift into central areas. The risk is structural: pushing full-backs higher to support the wide forwards leaves the centre-backs exposed to exactly the kind of crosses Bosnia specialise in.

Lopetegui's adjustment, if he makes it, will be to drop the full-backs and accept that Qatar's attacking width comes solely from the wide forwards staying high. That solves the crossing problem but narrows the pitch, which in turn gives Rade Krunić more time on the ball in midfield — and Krunić, when given time, has the passing range to find Džeko in positions where the aerial threat is most dangerous. If Qatar cannot cope with that delivery, Lopetegui's tactical adjustments will be moot.