Netherlands vs Sweden

European rivalry carries a different texture at the World Cup, where club-season grudges sit alongside national-team history in a way that qualifiers cannot replicate. The Netherlands and Sweden have met 25 times across all competitions, with the Dutch holding a narrow historical edge — 14 wins to Sweden's 7 — but recent memory is less flattering. Sweden beat the Netherlands 3-2 in the 2018 Nations League group stage, a result that effectively ended Ronald Koeman's first stint in charge. Then came Euro 2020 qualifying: Netherlands 4-0 in Rotterdam, then 2-0 in Stockholm, a pair of beatdowns that reasserted the hierarchy. Koeman knows Tomasson's principles intimately, but that knowledge cuts both ways.

Sweden will aim to frustrate, packing the midfield with disciplined runners who deny Gakpo and Simons the half-spaces they crave. Isak's threat on the break means the Dutch centre-backs cannot push high with their usual impunity. The broader storyline is simple: Netherlands expect to win the group, and dropping points here invites complications against Japan or Tunisia.

Sweden need a result to stay alive. That asymmetry in desperation often produces the tournament's best football.