A 48-team World Cup was supposed to leave less room for famous failures. On 31 March 2026, it still found room for one of the loudest. Italy led early in Zenica through Moise Kean, Bosnia & Herzegovina levelled late through Haris Tabakovic, and the tie swung to penalties. Bosnia won the shootout 4-1. Italy missed a third straight men's World Cup.
That is why this result landed so heavily. UEFA had 16 places. Italy were one match from taking one of them and still found a way to miss. Bosnia & Herzegovina earned the place in front of them. Italy wasted theirs. Both parts matter, and there is no serious way to write around either of them.
Italy are the headline
Italy's absence carries more weight than the others because the format did them no favours to complain about. This was not a tiny 13-team European field, and it was not one impossible group. The route opened up, then narrowed, then left them with a single-leg final they could not close. That is a football failure, not a format complaint.
Nigeria and Cameroon still missed in Africa
Africa had more finals places than ever before, and two of its usual heavyweights still ended up watching. DR Congo beat Cameroon 1-0 in the CAF play-off semi-final, then beat Nigeria on penalties after a 1-1 draw in the final. Nigeria were one match from the FIFA Play-Off Tournament and did not get there. Cameroon fell a step earlier. Expansion gave both countries more room. It did not protect them from two bad nights.
Poland and Chile belong in the same conversation
Sweden beat Poland 3-2 in Solna on the same night Italy went out, which means Poland disappear from casual memory too easily. They should not. They were at Qatar 2022, they had a clear March route, and they still lost the tie that mattered. Chile's exit came earlier, in July 2025, but the slide is harder than the timing makes it look. FIFA's own reporting on Chile's current rebuild ties Ricardo Gareca's departure directly to a third straight failure to qualify.
Did Italy qualify for World Cup 2026?
No. Italy lost 4-1 on penalties to Bosnia & Herzegovina after a 1-1 draw in the UEFA play-off final on 31 March 2026.
Did Nigeria qualify for World Cup 2026?
No. Nigeria were beaten by DR Congo in the CAF play-off final and never reached the FIFA Play-Off Tournament in Mexico.
There is a broader point under all of this, and it is not flattering to the big names. A larger World Cup reduced the number of ways established sides could blame the system. That made failure look more like failure. Italy proved it most loudly. They were not alone.